Tom Cruise has been one of our biggest movie stars for decades. While he’s spent the last huge chunk of his career doing some of the biggest action movies around, such as “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning” and “Top Gun: Maverick,” he’s getting back to something he hasn’t done in a long time: Oscar bait. “Digger,” which sees Cruise trying to save the world again, is being positioned as a major awards season contender by Warner Bros. Unfortunately, as far as its box office prospects are concerned, the movie is looking downright disastrous.
As of this writing, “Digger” is eyeing an opening in the $20 to $29 million range when it arrives next weekend, per Box Office Theory. Given that we’re talking about a movie with a $125 million budget from director Alejandro G. Iñárritu (“The Revenant,” “Birdman”) starring the biggest movie star on the planet, that’s not great. There are also further reasons for concern.
The first critical reactions to Cruise’s “Digger” have been mixed. That means it may struggle to catch on with more casual moviegoers, assuming audiences agree with critics. That could mean it has trouble legging out beyond opening weekend, which would be especially problematic for a movie that cost this much to make. It doesn’t help that it’s opening against “Verity,” which is looking at a similar opening against a much lower budget.
The film centers on the most powerful man
The film centers on the most powerful man in the world, Digger Rockwell (Cruise), as he embarks on a frantic mission to prove he is humanity’s savior before the disaster he’s unleashed destroys everything. The impressive ensemble cast also includes Riz Ahmed (“Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”), John Goodman (“10 Cloverfield Land”), Sandra Hüller (“Project Hail Mary”), Michael Stuhlbarg (“The Shape of Water”), and Jesse Plemons (“Bugonia”).
How much does Digger need to make to save face for Warner Bros.?
Warner Bros.
Warner Bros. desperately needs this movie to at least make enough money to save face. To be an outright success, “Digger” would need to make around $312 million globally to be at 2.5 times its budget, which is a very rough metric used to determine success in Hollywood. To save face? It would probably at least need to match last year’s “One Battle After Another,” which was still a box office bomb despite winning Best Picture at the Oscars. That movie made $213 million worldwide against a reported budget of at least $140 million.
The difference is that “One Battle After Another” was met with close to universal acclaim. We already know “Digger” isn’t going to be afforded that same kindness. So, while it could wind up in the awards season conversation, movies like “The Odyssey” stand a far better shot at taking home the big prizes. So there will likely be less bragging rights for the studio to make up for a potentially disappointing box office performance.
It’s also worth noting that WB is having
It’s also worth noting that WB is having a rough year. 2025 was a gold mine with movies like “Sinners” and “Weapons” breaking out. 2026? Not so much. “Supergirl” flopped at the box office, with “Mortal Kombat II,” “The End of Oak Street,” “The Bride!,” and “They Will Kill You” all disappointing if not outright flopping. It’s been rough. This Tom Cruise/Alejandro G. Iñárritu team-up was a big swing that’s shaping up to be a big miss.
“Birdman” won Best Picture at the Oscars, and “The Revenant” finally won Leonardo DiCaprio his Oscar in addition to making $533 million worldwide. Warner Bros. undoubtedly had that in mind when they paired Cruise with Iñárritu. But it’s looking like those results are not how it’s going to pan out this time around.
“Digger” hits theaters on October 2, 2026.
