Will the Academy’s documentary branch finally see it all?
“You Can See Everything,” Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s A24 doc that made for an explosive secret screening in Telluride, follows Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes during the 34 days before she reported to prison and keeps rolling long after. It just played the New York Film Festival and carries something no nonfiction film has pulled off in 98 ceremonies: a legitimate shot at best picture.
It’s a gate that nonfiction films have been trying to storm past for years. Jonas Poher Rasmussen’s 2021 film “Flee” came closest, landing documentary, animated and international feature nods at the 94th ceremony (a first, though the film went home empty-handed).
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Why might the Holmes yarn break through? It’s a movie the rest of the Academy can find without an individual branch hanging a neon sign. Cinematographer David Bolen shoots with long lenses, parking on faces well past the point of comfort, which is what made the first “You Can See Everything” trailer viral. Actors who have never opened a doc screener in their lives know Fielder from “Nathan for You” and “The Rehearsal.” Oppenheim has his own heat with “Primetime,” the Robert Pattinson drama also sitting in the awards mix.
The best picture category is decided by the full membership of roughly 11,000 voters. However, the doc branch alone hands out the five documentary feature slots, and its habits have driven campaigners up the wall for decades.
“Sometimes it feels less like we’re judging the work and more like we’re judging only who we know,” one documentary branch member tells Variety. “That’s frustrating. You can make the most formally ambitious documentary of the decade, but if people have already decided they love another filmmaker, or they’ve seen them at enough dinners and screenings, you don’t stand a chance.”
History has shown, however, that popularity rarely does a doc any favors. The “Hoop Dreams” omission in 1994 forced the Academy to overhaul the branch’s voting mechanism. Morgan Neville’s Mister Rogers portrait “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” grossed more than $22 million in 2018, won the PGA and Critics Choice doc prizes but didn’t score an Oscar nom. Neville, who won for “20 Feet From Stardom” (2013), hasn’t been nominated since, which keeps a theory on the circuit alive: Win once and the branch considers you taken care of. Laura Poitras (“Citizenfour” and “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”) is the rare exception. “There’s a popularity contest element to it now that pisses me off,” another voter says. “I don’t care how many people I know on a film or how charming somebody is at a Q&A. Did they make a great documentary? That should be the question.”
There will be other buzzy titles expected in the doc race, including Ava DuVernay’s criminal justice sequel “14th” and Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s “Naza,” the portrait of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that stunned at Venice.
Then there’s the question of who gets a ballot in the first place. Members from any branch can opt in for international feature, animated feature and, as of last season, animated short nominating rounds. Documentary is the lone holdout, and the argument for opening it up to the wider membership comes down to math. The 98th Oscars had 201 eligible docs. Even at roughly 90 minutes a pop, that’s more than 300 hours — or about seven and a half workweeks for people with their own movies to finish. Nobody is watching everything. More members watching could provide balance.
“You Can See Everything” won’t make the branch’s life easier, because Fielder isn’t hiding behind the camera. He’s in the frame, and the film keeps circling whether Holmes is being authentic, performing for the camera or some blurry mix of both. For a branch that still prizes the fly on the wall, that’s a tough sell.
The smart money has this as the kind of movie that misses the 15-film shortlist in December. If it does, a snub that loud becomes a rallying cry, the way Ben Affleck’s directing omission for “Argo” did, and the wider membership answers in the one place it can: the best picture ballot.
This week’s updated predictions are below.
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Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
Oscars Predictions Tracking
(Oct. 8, 2026)
(In alphabetical order. Ranked choices are on each individual category page)
Best Picture
“Artificial” (Neon)
“The Debut” (A24)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Invite” (A24)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) ***
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
“You Can See Everything” (A24)
Director
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, “La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Martin McDonagh, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Christopher Nolan, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
Oli
Actor
Matt Damon, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
John Malkovich, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) ***
Pedro Pascal, “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
Andrew Scott, “Elsinore” (Focus Features)
John Turturro, “The Only Living Pickpocket in New York” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Actress
Marion Bailey, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Emily Blunt, “Disclosure” (Universal Pictures)
Julianne Moore, “The Debut” (A24) ***
Inde Navarrette, “Obsession” (Focus Features)
Oli
Supporting Actor
Andrew Garfield, “Artificial” (Neon) ***
Guitarricadelafuente, “La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Paul Giamatti, “The Debut” (A24)
John Leguizamo, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Sam Rockwell, “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures)
Supporting Actress
[Redacted], “You Can See Everything” (A24)
Penélope Cruz, “The Invite” (A24)
Anne Hathaway, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) ***
Samantha Morton, “The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
Kate O’Flynn, “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street)
Original Screenplay
“Artificial” (Neon) — Simon Rich
“The Debut” (A24) — Jesse Eisenberg
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Peter Gamble
“Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street) — Mike Leigh
“Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) — Martin McDonagh ***
Adapted Screenplay
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) — Brian K. Vaughan, Denis Villeneuve
“The Invite” (A24) — Rashida Jones and Will McCormack ***
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix) — Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Alberto Conejero
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Casting
“Being Heumann” (Apple Original Films) — Adam Caldwell and Bernard Telsey
“I Play Rocky” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Rick Montgomery
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix) — Eva Leira and Yolanda Serrano
“Michael” (Lionsgate) — Victoria Thomas
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) — John Papsidera ***
Animated Feature
“Forgotten Island” (DreamWorks Animation) — Joel Crawford, Januel Mercado and Mark Swift
“Ray Gunn” (Netflix) — Brad Bird, John Lasseter, Lisa Beroud, David Ellison and Dana Goldberg
“Tangles” (Independent Film Company) — Leah Nelson, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Lauren Miller Rogen, Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg
“Toy Story 5” (Pixar) — Andrew Stanton, Lindsey Collins and Jessica Choi
“Wildwood” (Laika) — Travis Knight and Sam Wilson ***
Production Design
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth” (Netflix)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Cinematography
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) ***
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)
Costume Design
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Sense and Sensibility” (Focus Features)
Film Editing
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“The Invite” (A24)
“La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) ***
“You Can See Everything” (A24)
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Digger” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures)
“Werwulf” (Focus Features)
Sound
“Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.)
“Michael” (Lionsgate)
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) ***
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Godzilla Minus Zero” (GKids)
“Project Hail Mary” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” (Sony Pictures)
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Original Score“Artificial” (Neon) — Damon Albarn
“Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures) — The Behemoth! Collective
“Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros.) — Hans Zimmer
“The Odyssey” (Universal Pictures) — Ludwig Göransson ***
“Wildwood” (Laika)
Original Song
“Your God is Sleeping” from “Behemoth!” (Searchlight Pictures)
“By Any Means” from “By Any Means” (Paramount Pictures)
“This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from “The Debut” (A24) ***
“Let Me Sell You a Dream” from “Musk” (Bleecker Street)
“I Knew It, I Knew You” from “Toy Story 5” (Pixar)
Documentary Feature
“14th” (Netflix)
“Musk” (Bleecker Street)
“Naza” (The Guardian and MK2) ***
“Once Upon a Time in Harlem” (Neon)
“Rehearsals for a Revolution” (Sony Pictures Classics)
International Feature
“Fjord” from Romania (Neon)
“La Bola Negra” from Spain (Netflix) ***
“Minotaur” from France (Mubi)
“Possible Love” from South Korea (Netflix)
“Woman Unknown” from Denmark (U.S. Distributor TBD)
